Dole Institute panel persuaded 3rd District Democrat likely to win reelection bid

Wichita State University political science chairwoman Alexandra Middlewood suspects Kansas Republicans made a tactical error by gerrymandering left-leaning Lawrence into the conservative, rural 1st congressional district that extends to the Colorado border.

Lawrence was removed from the 2nd District of U.S. Rep. Jake LaTurner, a Republican, and buried in the 1st District controlled by hard-right GOP U.S. Rep. Tracey Mann. In exchange, LaTurner absorbed part of Democrat-rich Wyandotte County stripped from U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, the 3rd District Democrat. This remapping exercise was designed to undercut support for Davids, but she won reelection in 2022.

Middlewood said during a Dole Institute of Politics forum Wednesday at the University of Kansas that continued population growth in Lawrence and emergence of young immigrant-family voters in portions of southwest Kansas could within eight years or so make the 1st District competitive for a Democrat.

“This is a little controversial,” she said. “For the past two years, I’ve been telling my students that the Republican Party made a mistake by gerrymandering the 1st.”

Daniel Desrochers, the Washington correspondent for the Kansas City Star, said polarization of Congress made it difficult for politicians with massive districts to decide when to work for all residents of their district and when to concentrate on interests of just the people who voted for them. It’s a conflict faced by Mann, who is responsible for a district encompassing all or part of 60 counties covering more than half of Kansas.

“That’s a difficult line members of Congress are walking right now,” Desrochers said. “It feels more and more that elections are leaking into the governing part. That makes balancing all of your constituents’ interests more difficult.”

Host Jonathan Shorman, the Star’s lead political reporter, asked Desrochers and Middlewood why attempts to destablize Davids weren’t more effective. Both said Davids worked diligently to connect with her new rural constituents in Miami, Franklin and Anderson counties. She also was appointed to the House Agriculture Committee and earned endorsement by the Kansas Farm Bureau.

“She’s done a really good job pitching herself to those rural voters to get more support in those counties than anybody expected,” Middlewood said. “Voters want to be listened to. They want to be heard.”

Desrochers said he spoke to a moderate Republican political operative about Davids, and her view was that Johnson County, the state’s most populous, would cling to Davids as long as former President Donald Trump led the Republican Party.

“Her take on it is as long as Trump is at the top of the ticket, Sharice Davids isn’t going anywhere,” he said. “The moderate Republican voters of Johnson County don’t really like what’s going on in terms of where Trump is leading the Republican Party.”

Davids’ rival in 2024 is Republican Prasanth Reddy, who comes from an immigrant family, served in the military and worked as a cancer doctor.

“Reddy is really a political outsider,” Middlewood said. “He doesn’t have political experience and he’s pushing that message to voters.”

Desrochers said it didn’t appear the House GOP’s leadership fund was prepared to pour cash into Kansas on Reddy’s behalf, which would follow the pattern set in 2022 when Davids beat GOP nominee Amanda Adkins.

“He just has a lot of institutional disadvantages to overcome,” Desrochers said. “The incumbent advantage is real.”

LaTurner, the 2nd district Republican, decided not to seek reelection in 2024. The November ballot pits Republican Derek Schmidt, the state’s former attorney general, against Democrat Nancy Boyda, who served a single term in the U.S. House after winning in 2006. After subtracting liberal and moderate voters of Lawrence, the 2nd District certainly leans in favor of Republican candidates.

Boyda’s campaign in some ways tracked with the centrist messaging of Gov. Laura Kelly’s two successful campaigns for governor. Her ads literally showed her walking down the middle of a road. In 2018, Kelly defeated Republican Kris Kobach. Kelly repeated that feat in 2022, but this time outran Schmidt. Even in loss, that statewide campaign helped Schmidt in terms of his congressional campaign.

“Derek Schmidt is a really popular name,” Middlewood said.

In the 4th District held by Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Estes, blue-collar voters of Sedgwick County have moved to the right for the benefit of Estes. That trend differed from Johnson County, which has a college-educated population drawn more to the Democratic Party.

Desrochers said Estes, who is matched against Democrat Esau Freeman on the November ballot, is a conservative who often embraced populist legislation in Congress along with Mann.

“When Representative Estes is voting, he’s often kind of siding with the wing of the Republican Party that views themselves as populists,” Desrochers said.

He said all the state’s congressional candidates found it a challenge to connect with undecided voters. The task often proved so complex, he said, candidates tended to focus on appealing to base voters and on turning out supporters on Election Day.

“To the people who follow politics, it’s kind of like: Who doesn’t have an opinion by now?” Desrochers said. “These people tend to be low-information voters that are harder to reach. They might be picking based on vibes, you know, like: Would you get a beer with that person?”

Kansas Reflector is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Kansas Reflector maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Sherman Smith for questions: info@kansasreflector.com. Follow Kansas Reflector on Facebook and Twitter.

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